The landscape in American education is noticeably shifting. As evidenced by the data compiled in The AS&U 100 2026 ranking of the largest public school districts in the U.S., nearly 60% of the top 100 districts faced enrollment declines in 2024-2025, according to the latest data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Over 49,300 students nationwide are no longer reported in the public school system, nearly a 0.5% decline from the previous year.

The decline is part of a larger trend in K-12 enrollments, which dropped by an average of 3.8% (or 1.5 million students) in 40 states between 2019 and 2024, according to NCES. This evolving reality is forcing hard decisions about how to allocate capital expenditures and manage operating expenses at school facilities.

Enrollment declines complicate capital planning

Enrollment shrinkage—and its corresponding financial impact on construction and renovation projects—doesn’t have a single, definitive cause. Instead, schools are beset with intersecting concerns that originate far outside their specific zip code:

• A steadily falling birth rate over the past two decades
• Federal and state funding cuts to public education 
• Expanding policies that incentivize private school choice options

Additionally, homeschooling participation is “increasing at an average rate of 4.9% … more than double the pre-pandemic homeschooling growth rate of around 2%,” according to John Hopkins School of Education. Its reporting noted that only 29 states capture these numbers, representing a partial snapshot. The 2024-2025 homeschooling uptick also varied widely, from as little as 1% to over 21%. But the conclusion is nonetheless striking:

“Homeschooling growth is nearly triple the pre-pandemic rate and shows no signs of slowing down. This isn’t a pandemic hangover; it’s a fundamental shift in how American families are thinking about education,” said Angela R. Watson, director, Johns Hopkins Homeschool Research Lab in a 2025 article for the Institute for Education Policy.

Even an enrollment change that seemingly appears small can represent the loss of hundreds, if not thousands, of students in a single year. When a large district like Houston, TX (#12) saw a 4.1% decrease, that represents close to 7,380 absent learners. Or when a smaller district like Lewisville, TX (#99) recorded a 1.16% decline, that’s still over 560 students no longer attending.

Growth persists in midsized districts

Yet there remain bright spots, considering that 42 districts enlarged their student bodies. A number of these districts are located in midsized cities that are experiencing growth, often outpacing the rate of their larger metro neighbors. For example, three districts with students in the upper 40,000s joined the top 100: Round Rock, TX (+1.64%); Frederick County, MD (+0.78%); and St. Lucie, FL (+4.94%).

“Big-city growth slowed significantly between 2024 and 2025, with some major hubs even seeing small declines,” noted Matt Erickson, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. “In contrast, midsized cities found a ‘Goldilocks zone’ where domestic and international migration, paired with new housing, helped prevent the sluggish growth seen in small towns and larger metropolitan centers.”

The following three profiles highlight how districts are reacting to different enrollment dynamics: Round Rock, TX, (#100), a newcomer to the ranking amid continued growth; Los Angeles Unified (#2), which remains one of the nation’s largest districts despite declining enrollment; and DC Public Schools (#80), one of the top five districts where enrollment continues to rise. Each are admirable for forging ahead with projects that increase space for programming, improve existing buildings, and incorporate climate resiliency features.

Three districts, three approaches to changing enrollment

• Growth drives expansion in Round Rock, TX

Round Rock, TX has experienced steady year-over-year population increases since the 2020 census. It has grown from just shy of 120,000 residents to 143,075, according to city data. The increase of roughly 23,000 inhabitants correlates to an additional 757 students for the Round Rock Independent School District, tallying to almost 47,000. A 2024 bond is currently funding a number of vital projects.

Ground has been broken on the Career & Technical Education Building (CTE). The district acquired a 200,000-square-foot building from LegalZoom in 2025 for $38 million, reported the Austin Business Journal. The remodel will include space for “auto body, cosmetology, early childhood, and electrical trades” as well as a welcome center, according to the district. There is also room to accommodate administration offices, freeing up their current building at the Round Rock High School campus.

A new Support Services Building will also expand programming, notably for robotics. Over 340 high school students are currently participating in robotics clubs, according to the 2025-2026 Bond Program Annual Report: “We've seen a 66% increase in high school participation in both the FTC, which is the FIRST Tech Challenge, and the FIRST Robotics Club. We now have 18 teams across all five comprehensive high schools as well as two FRC teams.”

Slated expansions will also improve popular art amenities. One high school will receive 24 new classrooms along with a ceramics lab overhaul, while one middle school will have a 12-classroom addition that includes a dance studio. An existing auditorium will even experience a major renovation, including mechanical, electrical, plumbing (MEP) and fire system upgrades; new lobby and restrooms; and seating, stage, and technical equipment updates.

• Los Angeles Unified invests in climate resilience amid enrollment decline

As the city with the second-highest population in the U.S., Los Angeles Unified supports over 408,000 students. However, the enrollment decline of 2.83% over 2023-2024 correlates to nearly 12,000 students. The result is that the district is facing “significant fiscal challenges driven by declining enrollment, the expiration of one-time pandemic funding, rising operating costs, and increasing long-term obligations,” per their newsroom. Capital projects, which account for about 20% of the 2026-2027 budget, have a strong focus on existing facility improvements and climate resiliency.

Extreme heat has become a pervasive issue that the city’s seven board districts are actively combating. The urban heat island effect is intensifying as “climate change is driving up average temperatures and making heatwaves more frequent, longer, and intense,” noted L.A. County’s Chief Sustainability Office. In alignment with the County Heat Action Plan, Los Angeles Unified is continuing to add shade structures over playground equipment. 

Artificial turf has also been flagged as a heat-trapping surface. Despite its benefits for water consumption, the synthetic material doesn’t have the cooling cycle associated with grass and soil. Along with a moratorium on new installations, the Board of Education has commissioned a study to examine the impact of natural vs. turf grass on athletic fields.

HVAC upgrades are another strategy to protect staff and students from temperature swings. In addition to replacing aging systems with all-electric technology, interim cooling plans are in motion that will include “the deployment of portable AC’s, shade structures, hydration stations, and misting systems.”

Lastly, wildfire recovery and preparedness is a key priority. Fall 2026 saw the reopening of Palisades Charter High School. The 2025 Palisades wildfire destroyed approximately 30% of its classrooms, and the site has undergone rebuilding and environmental remediation to welcome back students. Palisades Charter is one of three schools that were damaged, with the others expected to be restored through 2028.

Since wildfire smoke and ash have significant health impacts, the district is also updating safety protocols based on data from its Know Your Air Network. Since 2022, this initiative has helped the school system track air quality and respond to pollutant levels. The 230 sensors across 710 square miles ensure there is air quality monitoring within 1.6 miles of every school, ensuring leaders have appropriate data to make decisions about elevated levels of fine particulate matter.

• DC Public Schools pairs enrollment growth with modernization

Serving over 50,000 students, DC Public Schools (DCPS) has allocated close to $5 billion for facility improvements across its eight wards since 2015. Many of these are modernization projects as determined by the Planning Actively for Comprehensive Education Facilities Amendment Act of 2016. Buildings are ranked every five years using “objective data on facility condition, demand, community need, and equity,” as outlined in the latest Master Facilities Plan. A three-year Facility Condition Assessment also evaluates each building’s mechanical and electrical systems, envelope and roof, and structural integrity for current status and remaining useful life.

The 2026-2027 school year commenced with three ribbon cuttings:

• • J.O. Wilson Elementary expansion – nearly doubled the square footage from 55,000 to 100,000. DC offers free universal pre-K, and its latest data from 2023-2024 enrollment notes that they register “82% of all 3-year-olds and 95% of all four-year-olds citywide—far above the national average of 7% and 35%, respectively.” J.O. Wilson is now home to “three pre-K3 classes, three pre-K4 classes, one mixed-age class, and one early learning supports classroom dedicated to special education,” according to a press release. Students will have access to a new gym with a stage and four music and art classrooms.
  • Barnard Elementary addition – increased by 23,000 square feet to provide 12 classrooms as well as special education spaces. Sustainability elements were also integrated, including a green roof and bioretention ponds.
  • John R. Thompson Jr. High School extension – enlarged capacity from 200 to 800 students with a new 33,000-square-foot building. “The expansion includes an entire floor of new science classrooms, two new art rooms, two music classrooms, an administrative space, technology-equipped learning spaces, and an outdoor classroom,” announced DCPS. Over the next two summers, the site will complete work on an auditorium addition and cafeteria expansion.

Aging facilities keep capital needs high

No matter their size or enrollment trajectory, school districts will need to remain proactive about managing aging facilities and mounting capital needs. AS&U’s latest Bond Alert tracking underscores the scale of that challenge: 88 of 112 school bond measures slated for Nov. 3 include modernization or renewal work representing about $19.1 billion in proposed funding. Over 30% specifically address HVAC, roofing, or other core building systems, totaling roughly $5.5 billion.

Shifting enrollment adds another layer to master planning. There is always a major system like a roof or HVAC reaching its end of life. Those improvement dollars are often competing against a project with a tangible payback, like a lighting upgrade that will lower electricity bills. Then there are the investments supporting the student experience, like modernizing playground equipment or enriching spaces for electives. These myriad choices require facility leaders to weigh where to invest, what to renovate, and when replacement makes the most financial and operational sense.