nces projections

States projected to have the greatest percentage public school enrollment decline, 2016 to 2028

June 16, 2020
States in the Northeast will experience the most decline, federal statistics say.

Federal statistics project that between 2016 2028, enrollment in K-12 public schools will increase by 1.6%, but many of the 50 states are expected to see their student numbers decline over those years.

The estimates of enrollment changes in individual states (and Washington, D.C.) from 2016 to 2028 range from a 22.6% increase in Washington, D.C., to a 12% decrease in Connecticut, according to "Projection of Education Statistics to 2028" from the National Center for Education Statistics.

Much of the decrease is expected to occur in the Northeast. Student enrollment in that region is projected to drop by 3.7% from 2016 to 2028.

Here are the states projected to have the greatest percentage decline in student enrollment from 2016 to 2028.

State                   Projected Decrease

Connecticut                -12.0%
New Hampshire         -11.0%
New Mexico                -9.0%
Vermont                       -9.0%
West Virginia                -8.9%
Mississippi                    -8.6%
Michigan                        -8.4%
Illinois                            -6.5%
Hawaii                            -5.4%
Maine                            -5.0%

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