Enrollment in New York City’s public schools could plunge by as many as 153,000 students during the next decade, according to a forecast that points to falling birthrates, an aging population and an exodus of families.
The New York Times reports that If the outlook for the nation's largest school district pans out, it will have shrunk by more than a quarter during a 15-year period ending in the 2034-35 school year, according to the latest annual projections from the city's School Construction Authority.
Enrollment in the school system has dropped by more than 123,000 students since the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
Today, New York City schools have about 781,000 students, not including those attending charter schools or those with disabilities that attend a separate network of schools known as District 75.
In the 2034-35 school year, the 781,000 figure could fall to just 628,000 students, according to the projections.
The city's Department of Education acknowledged the challenges presented by a decline in enrollment. “As we plan for the future, we will continue making responsible decisions that strengthen opportunities for students while also ensuring families have clear, timely information about their options,” the department said.
One reason for the reduced enrollment is the decline in immigrants who have historically helped offset the departure of residents to other cities.
Families also have more options. Charter schools now enroll about 150,000 students in the city.
Another factor: People are having fewer children. About 25,000 fewer children a year are born in New York City than a decade ago.
