The Wake County (N.C.) school system, which used to grow by thousands of students a year, may add fewer than 40 to its numbers in the fall.
The Raleigh News & Observer reports that new long-term enrollment projections have North Carolina’s largest school system adding only 33 students this fall and 1,177 students through fall 2026.
School and county planners say the aging of the county population, fewer children being born and competition from charter schools, private schools and homeschooling are having an effect. They also say that it’s becoming harder to determine how much growth will occur year to year, especially when parents may choose alternatives to the school district.
“Next year we could see negligible growth of less than 50 students,” says Wade Martin, assistant superintendent for school choice, planning and assignment. “But a 1% change could mean 1,500 students as well. These factors of what parental choices are going to be and what choices are going to be available reveal themselves day by day.”
Wake County has tripled its enrollment since the 1980s, and has had years when it grew by as many as 7,500 new students. Its official enrollment for 2019-20 is 161,907 students.
The latest projections have the district reaching only 163,080 students in fall 2026. Enrollment is projected to drop in some years as growth yo-yos up and down. The last time Wake County’s enrollment shrank was in 1982.
In recent years, enrollment has dropped in North Carolina’s traditional public schools while increasing in charter schools.
Martin says that charter schools pose a particular challenge for the enrollment projections. Eight new charter schools could open this fall and affect Wake County, but it’s unclear how many will begin operation this year.
“Predicting growth in any given year is getting more and more difficult,” Martin says. “Predicting public schools will continue as the overwhelming choice, that will be easy.”
